What is the home price forecast for Tract 000241?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 000241 median home values at $2,121,848 currently, with a 5-year expected change of -26.2%.

How confident is the Tract 000241 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $907,316 (downside) to $2,420,669 (upside), with a spread of 97% of median.

Tract 000241 Home Price Forecast

County 19795, IA · Census Tract 19795000241 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$2.12M

Downside (P10)

$907K

-57% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$1.56M

-26% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$2.42M

+14% by 2030

Base case: -26% by 2030, with a forecast range from -57% to +14%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 19795 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$2.1M	$2.1M	$1.8M	$1.6M	$1.6M
YoY Change		-2.9%	-11.2%	-13.0%	-1.7%
Downside (P10)		$1.4M	$1.1M	$926K	$907K
Upside (P90)		$2.6M	$2.5M	$2.4M	$2.4M

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$1.60M to $2.58M

46.4% of median

5-Year Spread

$907K to $2.42M

96.7% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: significant decline expected5yr expected: -26.2% · Spread: 97%

·The downside reflects broader macro sensitivity and local demand softening.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 000063	$2.07M	$1.49M	-28.0%
Tract 000021	$2.01M	$1.49M	-25.6%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 000021	$2.01M	$1.49M	-25.6%
Tract 000063	$2.07M	$1.49M	-28.0%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Tract 000063	$2.07M	$1.49M	$1.07M
Tract 000021	$2.01M	$1.49M	$1.08M

Location

Tract 000241 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).