What is the home price forecast for Tract 200005?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 200005 median home values at $597,376 currently, with a 5-year expected change of 4.4%.

How confident is the Tract 200005 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $335,255 (downside) to $1,212,434 (upside), with a spread of 141% of median.

Tract 200005 Home Price Forecast

County 19760, IA · Census Tract 19760200005 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$597K

Downside (P10)

$335K

-44% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$624K

+4% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$1.21M

+103% by 2030

Base case: +4% by 2030, with a forecast range from -44% to +103%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 19760 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$597K	$634K	$594K	$591K	$624K
YoY Change		+6.1%	-6.3%	-0.6%	+5.6%
Downside (P10)		$432K	$350K	$318K	$335K
Upside (P90)		$930K	$999K	$1.0M	$1.2M

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.

1-Year Spread

$467K to $754K

48.1% of median

5-Year Spread

$335K to $1.21M

140.7% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: moderate growth expected5yr expected: +4.4% · Spread: 141%

·The forecast implies relatively stable values through the full horizon, with modest movements in either direction.
·The base case is supported by stable local demand and a moderate medium-term appreciation path.
·The wider-than-average range suggests more uncertainty about the trajectory — consider both upside and downside scenarios.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 600003	$590K	$621K	+5.2%
Tract 440001	$523K	$562K	+7.6%
Tract 280009	$505K	$594K	+17.7%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 280009	$505K	$594K	+17.7%
Tract 440001	$523K	$562K	+7.6%
Tract 600003	$590K	$621K	+5.2%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Tract 280009	$505K	$594K	$656K
Tract 440001	$523K	$562K	$731K
Tract 600003	$590K	$621K	$749K

Location

Tract 200005 on map

Open Full Map ↗

Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).