County 15951, HI · Census Tract 15951440005 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$4.92M
Downside (P10)
$1.92M
-61% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.96M
-40% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$3.67M
-25% by 2030
Base case: -40% by 2030, with a forecast range from -61% to -25%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 15951 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $4.9M | $4.7M | $4.0M | $3.2M | $3.0M |
| YoY Change | -4.2% | -16.0% | -19.2% | -7.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $3.4M | $2.7M | $2.1M | $1.9M | |
| Upside (P90) | $5.3M | $4.7M | $3.9M | $3.7M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$4.07M to $5.35M
26.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.92M to $3.67M
58.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 480007 | $4.85M | $2.92M | -39.8% |
| Tract 520006 | $4.61M | $2.60M | -43.5% |
| Tract 680001 | $5.31M | $2.97M | -44.0% |
| Tract 560008 | $5.44M | $3.22M | -40.8% |
| Tract 240001 | $4.33M | $2.57M | -40.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 400003 | $7.17M | $4.86M | -32.1% |
| Tract 480007 | $4.85M | $2.92M | -39.8% |
| Tract 240001 | $4.33M | $2.57M | -40.8% |
| Tract 560008 | $5.44M | $3.22M | -40.8% |
| Tract 920004 | $7.02M | $4.03M | -42.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 240001 | $4.33M | $2.57M | $1.45M |
| Tract 480007 | $4.85M | $2.92M | $1.47M |
| Tract 560008 | $5.44M | $3.22M | $1.59M |
| Tract 520006 | $4.61M | $2.60M | $1.85M |
| Tract 680001 | $5.31M | $2.97M | $2.08M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources