County 11900, DC · Census Tract 11900000461 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$3.82M
Downside (P10)
$1.53M
-60% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$2.37M
-38% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.99M
-22% by 2030
Base case: -38% by 2030, with a forecast range from -60% to -22%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 11900 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $3.8M | $3.6M | $3.0M | $2.6M | $2.4M |
| YoY Change | -5.5% | -15.9% | -15.6% | -7.5% | |
| Downside (P10) | $2.6M | $2.0M | $1.6M | $1.5M | |
| Upside (P90) | $4.2M | $3.7M | $3.2M | $3.0M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$3.06M to $4.20M
29.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.53M to $2.99M
61.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000380 | $3.86M | $2.31M | -40.2% |
| Tract 001305 | $3.86M | $2.42M | -37.3% |
| Tract 001062 | $3.76M | $2.46M | -34.5% |
| Tract 000704 | $3.90M | $2.33M | -40.2% |
| Tract 000160 | $3.73M | $2.52M | -32.5% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000241 | $3.54M | $2.40M | -32.1% |
| Tract 000584 | $3.57M | $2.42M | -32.3% |
| Tract 000160 | $3.73M | $2.52M | -32.5% |
| Tract 000021 | $3.12M | $2.10M | -32.6% |
| Tract 000762 | $3.29M | $2.21M | -32.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000063 | $3.27M | $2.08M | $1.34M |
| Tract 001240 | $3.33M | $2.20M | $1.34M |
| Tract 000160 | $3.73M | $2.52M | $1.37M |
| Tract 000827 | $3.70M | $2.37M | $1.43M |
| Tract 000089 | $3.50M | $2.35M | $1.43M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources