County 11850, DC · Census Tract 11850000728 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$2.75M
Downside (P10)
$963K
-65% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.77M
-35% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.39M
-13% by 2030
Base case: -35% by 2030, with a forecast range from -65% to -13%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 11850 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $2.7M | $2.6M | $2.2M | $1.9M | $1.8M |
| YoY Change | -5.3% | -16.8% | -14.3% | -4.3% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.6M | $1.3M | $1.1M | $963K | |
| Upside (P90) | $3.2M | $2.7M | $2.4M | $2.4M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$2.02M to $3.17M
41.6% of median
5-Year Spread
$963K to $2.39M
80.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000621 | $2.74M | $1.77M | -35.5% |
| Tract 000045 | $2.71M | $1.76M | -35.2% |
| Tract 001044 | $2.86M | $1.93M | -32.4% |
| Tract 000825 | $2.87M | $1.97M | -31.4% |
| Tract 000540 | $2.90M | $2.15M | -25.6% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000362 | $2.47M | $1.84M | -25.5% |
| Tract 000540 | $2.90M | $2.15M | -25.6% |
| Tract 000689 | $1.76M | $1.27M | -27.9% |
| Tract 000061 | $2.30M | $1.63M | -29.1% |
| Tract 000168 | $2.32M | $1.63M | -29.7% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000689 | $1.76M | $1.27M | $976K |
| Tract 001002 | $2.32M | $1.59M | $1.08M |
| Tract 001109 | $2.24M | $1.48M | $1.27M |
| Tract 001662 | $3.30M | $2.11M | $1.27M |
| Tract 001303 | $2.37M | $1.56M | $1.28M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources