County 04394, AZ · Census Tract 04394B00600 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$128K
Downside (P10)
$101K
-21% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$177K
+38% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$287K
+124% by 2030
Base case: +38% by 2030, with a forecast range from -21% to +124%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 04394 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $128K | $155K | $164K | $170K | $177K |
| YoY Change | +21.3% | +5.6% | +3.7% | +3.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $125K | $112K | $105K | $101K | |
| Upside (P90) | $206K | $247K | $256K | $287K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$114K to $154K
31.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$101K to $287K
105.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract C00700 | $136K | $215K | +58.6% |
| Tract E00800 | $154K | $223K | +44.4% |
| Tract E01600 | $224K | $326K | +45.7% |
| Tract D00100 | $239K | $364K | +52.7% |
| Tract E01400 | $266K | $378K | +41.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract C00700 | $136K | $215K | +58.6% |
| Tract D00100 | $239K | $364K | +52.7% |
| Tract E01200 | $308K | $466K | +51.3% |
| Tract E01600 | $224K | $326K | +45.7% |
| Tract B01500 | $274K | $398K | +45.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract E00800 | $154K | $223K | $215K |
| Tract C00700 | $136K | $215K | $224K |
| Tract E01600 | $224K | $326K | $225K |
| Tract E01400 | $266K | $378K | $287K |
| Tract D00100 | $239K | $364K | $293K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources