County 04509, AZ · Census Tract 04509A00300 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$144K
Downside (P10)
$137K
-5% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$222K
+54% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$374K
+160% by 2030
Base case: +54% by 2030, with a forecast range from -5% to +160%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 04509 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $144K | $172K | $191K | $207K | $222K |
| YoY Change | +19.6% | +11.0% | +8.5% | +7.1% | |
| Downside (P10) | $137K | $133K | $134K | $137K | |
| Upside (P90) | $236K | $276K | $334K | $374K |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$130K to $176K
32.1% of median
5-Year Spread
$137K to $374K
107.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
No comparable areas found for this neighborhood. This usually happens when only a small number of tracts in the county have forecast coverage.
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources