County 04430, AZ · Census Tract 04430640146 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$3.93M
Downside (P10)
$2.96M
-25% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$3.53M
-10% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$4.17M
+6% by 2030
Base case: -10% by 2030, with a forecast range from -25% to +6%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 04430 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $3.9M | $4.0M | $3.7M | $3.5M | $3.5M |
| YoY Change | +2.3% | -7.0% | -5.5% | +0.0% | |
| Downside (P10) | $3.6M | $3.3M | $3.0M | $3.0M | |
| Upside (P90) | $4.5M | $4.3M | $4.2M | $4.2M |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$3.68M to $4.24M
14.0% of median
5-Year Spread
$2.96M to $4.17M
34.2% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 080007 | $1.22M | $1.01M | -17.3% |
| Tract 440003 | $1.19M | $987K | -16.9% |
| Tract 160008 | $684K | $711K | +4.0% |
| Tract 560006 | $657K | $664K | +0.9% |
| Tract 520004 | $652K | $658K | +1.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000000 | $57K | $94K | +63.6% |
| Tract 400001 | $648K | $679K | +4.8% |
| Tract 160008 | $684K | $711K | +4.0% |
| Tract 520004 | $652K | $658K | +1.0% |
| Tract 560006 | $657K | $664K | +0.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000000 | $57K | $94K | $100K |
| Tract 560006 | $657K | $664K | $693K |
| Tract 440003 | $1.19M | $987K | $720K |
| Tract 400001 | $648K | $679K | $722K |
| Tract 080007 | $1.22M | $1.01M | $730K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources