County 04030, AZ · Census Tract 04030960006 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$972K
Downside (P10)
$429K
-56% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$847K
-13% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.45M
+49% by 2030
Base case: -13% by 2030, with a forecast range from -56% to +49%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 04030 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $972K | $983K | $899K | $839K | $847K |
| YoY Change | +1.2% | -8.6% | -6.6% | +0.9% | |
| Downside (P10) | $608K | $486K | $422K | $429K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.3M | $1.3M | $1.4M | $1.4M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$802K to $1.23M
44.5% of median
5-Year Spread
$429K to $1.45M
120.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 920004 | $997K | $876K | -12.2% |
| Tract 320002 | $928K | $835K | -10.0% |
| Tract 640009 | $847K | $810K | -4.4% |
| Tract 800001 | $677K | $697K | +2.9% |
| Tract 760002 | $671K | $710K | +5.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 760002 | $671K | $710K | +5.8% |
| Tract 800001 | $677K | $697K | +2.9% |
| Tract 840003 | $667K | $657K | -1.5% |
| Tract 560008 | $643K | $625K | -2.8% |
| Tract 640009 | $847K | $810K | -4.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 160000 | $620K | $591K | $743K |
| Tract 560008 | $643K | $625K | $746K |
| Tract 760002 | $671K | $710K | $779K |
| Tract 840003 | $667K | $657K | $807K |
| Tract 240001 | $631K | $590K | $835K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources