County 04200, AZ · Census Tract 04200001643 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$3.16M
Downside (P10)
$1.14M
-64% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.99M
-37% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.72M
-14% by 2030
Base case: -37% by 2030, with a forecast range from -64% to -14%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 04200 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $3.2M | $3.0M | $2.6M | $2.2M | $2.0M |
| YoY Change | -4.7% | -14.8% | -15.6% | -7.7% | |
| Downside (P10) | $2.0M | $1.7M | $1.3M | $1.1M | |
| Upside (P90) | $3.6M | $3.1M | $2.8M | $2.7M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$2.39M to $3.44M
33.4% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.14M to $2.72M
79.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000343 | $3.17M | $2.10M | -33.8% |
| Tract 000709 | $3.21M | $2.11M | -34.2% |
| Tract 001407 | $3.07M | $1.94M | -36.7% |
| Tract 002367 | $3.26M | $2.06M | -37.0% |
| Tract 001041 | $3.02M | $1.89M | -37.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 002529 | $1.89M | $1.35M | -28.7% |
| Tract 000149 | $2.39M | $1.70M | -28.7% |
| Tract 000767 | $2.26M | $1.61M | -29.1% |
| Tract 000602 | $2.22M | $1.57M | -29.3% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000181 | $2.36M | $1.64M | $988K |
| Tract 002529 | $1.89M | $1.35M | $1.04M |
| Tract 000767 | $2.26M | $1.61M | $1.07M |
| Tract 000149 | $2.39M | $1.70M | $1.10M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources