County 04080, AZ · Census Tract 04080280008 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.26M
Downside (P10)
$530K
-58% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$963K
-24% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.55M
+23% by 2030
Base case: -24% by 2030, with a forecast range from -58% to +23%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 04080 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.1M | $937K | $963K |
| YoY Change | -2.4% | -14.7% | -10.9% | +2.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $813K | $608K | $554K | $530K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.6M | $1.6M | $1.5M | $1.5M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.02M to $1.59M
45.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$530K to $1.55M
105.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 560003 | $1.27M | $979K | -22.7% |
| Tract 760007 | $1.27M | $1.03M | -18.6% |
| Tract 440000 | $1.37M | $998K | -27.0% |
| Tract 920009 | $1.43M | $1.02M | -28.5% |
| Tract 400008 | $1.05M | $836K | -20.1% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 160005 | $996K | $819K | -17.8% |
| Tract 760007 | $1.27M | $1.03M | -18.6% |
| Tract 400008 | $1.05M | $836K | -20.1% |
| Tract 560003 | $1.27M | $979K | -22.7% |
| Tract 440000 | $1.37M | $998K | -27.0% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 400008 | $1.05M | $836K | $1.01M |
| Tract 760007 | $1.27M | $1.03M | $1.02M |
| Tract 920009 | $1.43M | $1.02M | $1.05M |
| Tract 560003 | $1.27M | $979K | $1.06M |
| Tract 160005 | $996K | $819K | $1.09M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources