County 05775, AR · Census Tract 05775001601 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.49M
Downside (P10)
$669K
-55% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.14M
-24% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.75M
+18% by 2030
Base case: -24% by 2030, with a forecast range from -55% to +18%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 05775 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.5M | $1.4M | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.1M |
| YoY Change | -3.1% | -10.7% | -9.3% | -2.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $917K | $762K | $731K | $669K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.9M | $1.8M | $1.7M | $1.8M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.12M to $1.94M
54.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$669K to $1.75M
95.3% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 002529 | $1.49M | $1.25M | -16.2% |
| Tract 001449 | $1.47M | $978K | -33.6% |
| Tract 000262 | $1.50M | $1.17M | -22.5% |
| Tract 002260 | $1.51M | $1.07M | -28.8% |
| Tract 001889 | $1.51M | $1.15M | -23.7% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001148 | $1.05M | $1.43M | +36.7% |
| Tract 000107 | $965K | $850K | -12.0% |
| Tract 002480 | $979K | $856K | -12.6% |
| Tract 001627 | $1.01M | $865K | -14.2% |
| Tract 001520 | $973K | $835K | -14.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001821 | $971K | $803K | $898K |
| Tract 000903 | $987K | $777K | $901K |
| Tract 001148 | $1.05M | $1.43M | $917K |
| Tract 001520 | $973K | $835K | $923K |
| Tract 000864 | $1.04M | $827K | $946K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources