Lake and Peninsula, AK · Census Tract 02164000202 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$41K
Downside (P10)
$26K
-36% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$65K
+61% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$132K
+225% by 2030
Base case: +61% by 2030, with a forecast range from -36% to +225%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar Lake and Peninsula markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $41K | $50K | $57K | $62K | $65K |
| YoY Change | +23.1% | +13.4% | +9.9% | +5.2% | |
| Downside (P10) | $37K | $31K | $27K | $26K | |
| Upside (P90) | $72K | $94K | $122K | $132K |
The forecast range is very wide. The gap between upside and downside scenarios is unusually large — treat any single-point estimate with caution. This often reflects sparse local data or significant market volatility.
1-Year Spread
$34K to $50K
37.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$26K to $132K
161.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lake and Peninsula area | $147K | $219K | +49.2% |
| Lake and Peninsula area | $178K | $280K | +56.8% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lake and Peninsula area | $178K | $280K | +56.8% |
| Lake and Peninsula area | $147K | $219K | +49.2% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lake and Peninsula area | $147K | $219K | $195K |
| Lake and Peninsula area | $178K | $280K | $245K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources