County 02794, AK · Census Tract 02794A00308 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$472K
Downside (P10)
$502K
+6% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$675K
+43% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$903K
+91% by 2030
Base case: +43% by 2030, with a forecast range from +6% to +91%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 02794 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $472K | $540K | $593K | $632K | $675K |
| YoY Change | +14.5% | +9.7% | +6.6% | +6.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $474K | $491K | $499K | $502K | |
| Upside (P90) | $635K | $748K | $815K | $903K |
The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$431K to $530K
20.9% of median
5-Year Spread
$502K to $903K
59.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract A00305 | $434K | $581K | +33.8% |
| Tract 000300 | $403K | $588K | +45.9% |
| Tract A00303 | $330K | $486K | +47.2% |
| Tract 000101 | $278K | $410K | +47.5% |
| Tract 000003 | $254K | $343K | +35.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001300 | $215K | $322K | +49.8% |
| Tract A00215 | $241K | $358K | +48.4% |
| Tract 000101 | $278K | $410K | +47.5% |
| Tract A00303 | $330K | $486K | +47.2% |
| Tract 000300 | $403K | $588K | +45.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract A00215 | $241K | $358K | $223K |
| Tract 000003 | $254K | $343K | $272K |
| Tract 000101 | $278K | $410K | $297K |
| Tract A00303 | $330K | $486K | $315K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources