County 02794, AK · Census Tract 02794A00202 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$26K
Downside (P10)
$18K
-31% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$36K
+38% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$72K
+179% by 2030
Base case: +38% by 2030, with a forecast range from -31% to +179%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 02794 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $26K | $31K | $34K | $34K | $36K |
| YoY Change | +22.1% | +7.3% | +1.0% | +4.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $23K | $21K | $20K | $18K | |
| Upside (P90) | $48K | $56K | $61K | $72K |
The forecast range is very wide. The gap between upside and downside scenarios is unusually large — treat any single-point estimate with caution. This often reflects sparse local data or significant market volatility.
1-Year Spread
$22K to $34K
46.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$18K to $72K
152.1% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001300 | $215K | $322K | +49.8% |
| Tract A00215 | $241K | $358K | +48.4% |
| Tract 000003 | $254K | $343K | +35.2% |
| Tract 000101 | $278K | $410K | +47.5% |
| Tract A00303 | $330K | $486K | +47.2% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001300 | $215K | $322K | +49.8% |
| Tract A00215 | $241K | $358K | +48.4% |
| Tract 000101 | $278K | $410K | +47.5% |
| Tract A00303 | $330K | $486K | +47.2% |
| Tract 000300 | $403K | $588K | +45.9% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract A00215 | $241K | $358K | $223K |
| Tract 000003 | $254K | $343K | $272K |
| Tract 000101 | $278K | $410K | $297K |
| Tract A00303 | $330K | $486K | $315K |
| Tract 001300 | $215K | $322K | $320K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources