County 02600, AK · Census Tract 02600100104 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.87M
Downside (P10)
$763K
-59% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.28M
-31% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.79M
-4% by 2030
Base case: -31% by 2030, with a forecast range from -59% to -4%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 02600 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.9M | $1.7M | $1.5M | $1.3M | $1.3M |
| YoY Change | -9.4% | -12.6% | -9.4% | -4.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.1M | $864K | $811K | $763K | |
| Upside (P90) | $2.1M | $1.9M | $1.8M | $1.8M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.35M to $2.14M
42.3% of median
5-Year Spread
$763K to $1.79M
80.5% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 100049 | $1.92M | $1.25M | -34.7% |
| Tract 000107 | $1.98M | $1.44M | -27.5% |
| Tract 000123 | $2.02M | $1.38M | -31.8% |
| Tract 000602 | $2.21M | $1.58M | -28.4% |
| Tract 000327 | $2.23M | $1.62M | -27.3% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000000 | $106K | $172K | +61.5% |
| Tract 001423 | $2.33M | $1.72M | -26.0% |
| Tract 001083 | $2.41M | $1.76M | -27.1% |
| Tract 000327 | $2.23M | $1.62M | -27.3% |
| Tract 000107 | $1.98M | $1.44M | -27.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000000 | $106K | $172K | $208K |
| Tract 000408 | $2.43M | $1.73M | $905K |
| Tract 000563 | $2.25M | $1.50M | $1.05M |
| Tract 000107 | $1.98M | $1.44M | $1.09M |
| Tract 000628 | $2.27M | $1.60M | $1.10M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources