County 02600, AK · Census Tract 02600001740 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$3.03M
Downside (P10)
$1.07M
-65% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.92M
-36% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$2.44M
-19% by 2030
Base case: -36% by 2030, with a forecast range from -65% to -19%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 02600 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $3.0M | $2.9M | $2.4M | $2.1M | $1.9M |
| YoY Change | -4.2% | -16.0% | -15.7% | -6.4% | |
| Downside (P10) | $1.8M | $1.5M | $1.2M | $1.1M | |
| Upside (P90) | $3.4M | $2.9M | $2.5M | $2.4M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$2.41M to $3.37M
31.8% of median
5-Year Spread
$1.07M to $2.44M
71.4% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001782 | $2.70M | $1.88M | -30.4% |
| Tract 000880 | $2.57M | $1.73M | -32.8% |
| Tract 000767 | $2.57M | $1.79M | -30.4% |
| Tract 001245 | $2.56M | $1.66M | -35.3% |
| Tract 000644 | $2.54M | $1.78M | -29.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000000 | $106K | $172K | +61.5% |
| Tract 001423 | $2.33M | $1.72M | -26.0% |
| Tract 001083 | $2.41M | $1.76M | -27.1% |
| Tract 000327 | $2.23M | $1.62M | -27.3% |
| Tract 000107 | $1.98M | $1.44M | -27.5% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000000 | $106K | $172K | $208K |
| Tract 000408 | $2.43M | $1.73M | $905K |
| Tract 100104 | $1.87M | $1.28M | $1.03M |
| Tract 000563 | $2.25M | $1.50M | $1.05M |
| Tract 000107 | $1.98M | $1.44M | $1.09M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources