County 02591, AK · Census Tract 02591001040 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$779K
Downside (P10)
$359K
-54% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$671K
-14% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.19M
+53% by 2030
Base case: -14% by 2030, with a forecast range from -54% to +53%. Uncertainty is wide relative to similar County 02591 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $779K | $790K | $708K | $659K | $671K |
| YoY Change | +1.4% | -10.4% | -6.9% | +1.8% | |
| Downside (P10) | $532K | $396K | $356K | $359K | |
| Upside (P90) | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.2M |
The forecast range is wider than average for this market. Uncertainty is moderate near-term but expands significantly by 2030 — outcomes could vary meaningfully.
1-Year Spread
$648K to $1.00M
45.7% of median
5-Year Spread
$359K to $1.19M
123.9% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 000766 | $788K | $714K | -9.4% |
| Tract 001189 | $734K | $707K | -3.6% |
| Tract 001367 | $730K | $665K | -8.9% |
| Tract 000449 | $726K | $673K | -7.3% |
| Tract 000122 | $835K | $769K | -7.9% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001888 | $722K | $877K | +21.4% |
| Tract 002706 | $418K | $474K | +13.6% |
| Tract 001260 | $436K | $477K | +9.4% |
| Tract 002162 | $871K | $881K | +1.2% |
| Tract 001684 | $662K | $653K | -1.4% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 002706 | $418K | $474K | $461K |
| Tract 001260 | $436K | $477K | $591K |
| Tract 001684 | $662K | $653K | $601K |
| Tract 000106 | $700K | $638K | $687K |
| Tract 001367 | $730K | $665K | $733K |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources