County 02500, AK · Census Tract 02500001523 · 2027–2030 outlook
Current modeled value
$1.59M
Downside (P10)
$618K
-61% by 2030
Base Case (P50)
$1.17M
-26% by 2030
Upside (P90)
$1.72M
+9% by 2030
Base case: -26% by 2030, with a forecast range from -61% to +9%. Uncertainty is typical relative to similar County 02500 markets.
| Year | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median Value | $1.6M | $1.5M | $1.3M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
| YoY Change | -2.5% | -13.4% | -10.5% | -2.6% | |
| Downside (P10) | $924K | $753K | $654K | $618K | |
| Upside (P90) | $2.0M | $1.9M | $1.7M | $1.7M |
The forecast range is moderate for this market over this horizon. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, but uncertainty widens meaningfully by 2030.
1-Year Spread
$1.13M to $1.86M
46.2% of median
5-Year Spread
$618K to $1.72M
94.8% of median
Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.
Areas with the most similar current median values
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001167 | $1.58M | $1.13M | -28.7% |
| Tract 001345 | $1.59M | $1.15M | -28.0% |
| Tract 001743 | $1.58M | $1.28M | -19.1% |
| Tract 000922 | $1.58M | $1.19M | -24.6% |
| Tract 001303 | $1.59M | $1.08M | -32.0% |
Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | 5yr Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001743 | $1.58M | $1.28M | -19.1% |
| Tract 000964 | $1.54M | $1.22M | -20.9% |
| Tract 000249 | $1.24M | $971K | -21.6% |
| Tract 000045 | $1.19M | $921K | -22.6% |
Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)
| Area | Current Value | 5yr Expected | Spread |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tract 001303 | $1.59M | $1.08M | $874K |
| Tract 001167 | $1.58M | $1.13M | $961K |
| Tract 000249 | $1.24M | $971K | $1.01M |
| Tract 000045 | $1.19M | $921K | $1.04M |
Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.
Model
Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)
Forecast Horizon
2027 to 2030
Schema Version
forecast_queue
Citation
Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.
Data Sources