What is the home price forecast for Tract 800425?

Homecastr forecasts Tract 800425 median home values at $3,263,047 currently, with a 5-year expected change of -17.5%.

How confident is the Tract 800425 forecast?

The 5-year forecast range spans from $2,267,077 (downside) to $2,995,547 (upside), with a spread of 27% of median.

Tract 800425 Home Price Forecast

County 02155, AK · Census Tract 02155800425 · 2027–2030 outlook

Current modeled value

$3.26M

Downside (P10)

$2.27M

-31% by 2030

Base Case (P50)

$2.69M

-17% by 2030

Upside (P90)

$3.00M

-8% by 2030

Base case: -17% by 2030, with a forecast range from -31% to -8%. Uncertainty is narrow relative to similar County 02155 markets.

Forecast Timeline

Historical Trend & Forecast

HistoricalForecast (p50)Confidence range

View detailed timeline

Year	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Median Value	$3.3M	$3.4M	$3.1M	$2.7M	$2.7M
YoY Change		+3.8%	-9.4%	-12.3%	+0.0%
Downside (P10)		$3.0M	$2.7M	$2.3M	$2.3M
Upside (P90)		$3.6M	$3.4M	$3.0M	$3.0M

Forecast Uncertainty

Narrow rangeWide range

The forecast range is narrow for this market. Near-term outcomes are relatively tight, though uncertainty widens modestly by 2030.

1-Year Spread

$3.02M to $3.45M

13.0% of median

5-Year Spread

$2.27M to $3.00M

27.1% of median

Interpretation

Homecastr outlook: significant decline expected5yr expected: -17.5% · Spread: 27%

·The downside reflects broader macro sensitivity and local demand softening.
·The narrow range suggests relatively high model confidence for this market.

Comparable Alternatives

Use these nearby areas to compare price level, upside potential, and forecast risk.

Most Similar Neighborhoods

Areas with the most similar current median values

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 800328	$3.23M	$2.50M	-22.8%
Tract 800645	$3.32M	$2.77M	-16.6%
Tract 800823	$3.35M	$2.70M	-19.4%
Tract 800522	$3.36M	$2.74M	-18.6%
Tract 800205	$3.43M	$2.63M	-23.4%

Stronger Appreciation Potential

Nearby areas where the model expects higher 5-year price growth

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	5yr Change
Tract 800645	$3.32M	$2.77M	-16.6%
Tract 800522	$3.36M	$2.74M	-18.6%
Tract 800043	$2.90M	$2.36M	-18.6%
Tract 000348	$1.90M	$1.53M	-19.3%

Lower Risk Alternatives

Nearby areas with narrower forecast ranges (less uncertainty)

Area	Current Value	5yr Expected	Spread
Tract 800043	$2.90M	$2.36M	$561K
Tract 800904	$3.69M	$2.80M	$640K
Tract 800205	$3.43M	$2.63M	$649K
Tract 800823	$3.35M	$2.70M	$659K

Location

Tract 800425 on map

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Forecasts are probabilistic model outputs, not guarantees. The model uses historical data and economic indicators; it does not observe property-specific conditions. This is not financial, investment, or real estate advice. Learn more about our methodology.

Methodology & Data Sources

Model

Homecastr World Model (Schrödinger Bridge v12)

Forecast Horizon

2027 to 2030

Schema Version

forecast_queue

Citation

Hardesty Lewis, D. (2026). Homecastr Home Price Forecast. Retrieved from homecastr.com.

Data Sources

U.S. Census Bureau. American Community Survey (ACS), 5-Year Estimates, Table B25077 (Median Home Value), Census Tract level.
U.S. Census Bureau. TIGER/Line Shapefiles, Census Tract and ZCTA boundaries.
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (FRED). 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average (MORTGAGE30US), Unemployment Rate (UNRATE), Consumer Price Index (CPIAUCSL).