# Release Wave 1

| asset_id | status | why |
|---|---|---|
| `forecast.aggregate_surfaces` | `launch` | Aggregate state, county, ZCTA, and tract forecasts are already public-facing and fit the conservative public floor. |
| `forecast.aggregate_downloads` | `launch` | Existing CSV exports are the cleanest artifact-first public surface and already match the CSV-first release pattern. |
| `forecast.narratives` | `draft` | Narrative copy is useful, but versioning and QA should land before it becomes a benchmark-facing public asset. |
| `forecast.target_metric_tract` | `draft` | This is the right phase-2 bridge surface, but it should not block phase 1 while the rollout and examples are still settling. |
| `forecast.property_level_surfaces` | `hold` | Parcel and unit outputs stay out until parcel-level provenance and source terms are reviewed explicitly. |
| `backtest.public_vintage_oeo_maricopa_2022` | `launch` | The OEO Maricopa 2022 vintage is the clearest validated same-vintage county-control fixture already in hand. |
| `backtest.model_vs_persistence_cutoff2016_h8` | `launch` | The summarized score table is public-safe and demonstrates benchmark value without exposing raw panel histories. |
| `benchmark.raw_single_source_registry` | `launch` | Registry metadata is safe to publish now and immediately useful for Chronos, TimesFM, Nixtla, Prior Labs, and adjacent evaluation work. |
| `benchmark.mag_2023_projection_fixtures` | `launch` | The MAG 2023 fixtures are validated current planning surfaces and should be exposed with explicit support and vintage labels. |
| `benchmark.normalized_training_panels_candidate` | `draft` | Phase-3 training-panel release is plausible, but only after normalization and source-term review are explicit. |
| `provenance.arizona_archive_status_ledger` | `launch` | The archive ledger is the core provenance floor for what is validated, pending, or rejected. |
| `provenance.arizona_utility_panel_sources` | `launch` | The source manifest is metadata-only and directly supports benchmark reproducibility. |
| `provenance.arizona_enrichment_source_catalog` | `launch` | Public source metadata is safe and valuable even while mirrored raw pulls remain private. |
| `holdback.training_cost_history` | `hold` | Internal cost history is operational data, not public benchmark material. |
| `holdback.analytics_session_data` | `hold` | Product analytics and session data remain internal-only. |
| `holdback.raw_parcel_unit_histories` | `hold` | Raw parcel and unit histories exceed the aggregate-first public floor. |
| `holdback.assessor_extracts_license_unclear` | `hold` | Anything with unresolved source or license status stays blocked by default. |

Wave-1 support artifacts also include `public-data.source_inventory_tsv` and `public-data.panel_lineage_tsv`. Both are launch-ready metadata surfaces: they expose source ids, official upstream links where known, readiness/license labels, and source-to-panel lineage, but they do not mirror raw parcel, unit, assessor, analytics, or source-unclear payload rows.